“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future” - Niels Bohr
At the start of the year I shared twenty useful numbers for 2020, to provide some context for brand plans and business ambitions. Well, we now know that those numbers were arguably the least useful forecasts in economic history. So, with businesses across the world ripping up their marketing plans and reshaping themselves for a new world, here are those same twenty useful numbers, updated post coronavirus, together with the original predictions from January (shown as the figures in brackets).
Global Economic Growth
Predicted growth in the global economy: -4.9% (+3.2%)
Predicted growth in the US: -8% (+1.8%)
Predicted growth in India: -4.5% (+6.3%)
Predicted growth in China: +1% (+6%)
Predicted growth in Japan: -5.8% (0%)
Predicted growth in Russia: -6.6% (+1.7%)
Sources: Latest figures from IMF World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020. Original predictions from Morgan Stanley Real GDP growth forecasts.
UK Key Economic Indicators
Predicted economic growth in the UK: -10.2% (+1.4%)
Predicted increase in UK wages: +0.5%. (+2.5%)
Predicted increase in UK house prices: -7.5% (+1%)
Predicted level of UK inflation: +1.2% (2.1%)
Predicted level of UK unemployment: 8.6%. (4.1%)
Sources: See foot of article.
Adspend
Predicted increase in global adspend: -9.9% (+4.3%)
Predicted increase in total UK adspend: -13% (+4.9%)
Predicted increase in digital UK adspend: -8% (+11%)
Predicted increase in TV UK adspend: -15% (0%)
Predicted increase in Outdoor UK adspend: -35% (+5%)
Predicted increase in Cinema UK adspend: -50% (+4.5%)
Predicted increase in Radio UK adspend: -16% (+2%)
Predicted decrease in Print UK adspend: -24% (-6%)
Estimate of % UK adspend to be spent online in 2020: 66%
Source: GroupM
Sources for UK Key Economic Indicators
UK Economic Growth: Latest source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update. Original prediction from Morgan Stanley Real GDP growth forecasts.
Predicted increase in UK wages: Latest source HM Treasury. Forecast for the UK Economy. Comparison of Independent Forecasts. Original prediction from Korn Ferry Salary Forecast.
Predicted increase in UK house prices: Savills
Predicted level of UK inflation: Latest source: HM Treasury. Forecast for the UK Economy. Comparison of Independent Forecasts. Original source: Consensus Forecasts, G7 & Western Europe.
Predicted level of UK unemployment: Source: KPMG. UK Economic Outlook. June 2020. (Original source: Focus Economics Panel)
