Twenty Useful Numbers for 2020 - Updated Post-Coronavirus
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future” - Niels Bohr
At the start of the year I shared twenty useful numbers for 2020, to provide some context for brand plans and business ambitions. Well, we now know that those numbers were arguably the least useful forecasts in economic history. So, with businesses across the world ripping up their marketing plans and reshaping themselves for a new world, here are those same twenty useful numbers, updated post coronavirus, together with the original predictions from January (shown as the figures in brackets).
Global Economic Growth
Predicted growth in the global economy: -4.9% (+3.2%)
Predicted growth in the US: -8% (+1.8%)
Predicted growth in India: -4.5% (+6.3%)
Predicted growth in China: +1% (+6%)
Predicted growth in Japan: -5.8% (0%)
Predicted growth in Russia: -6.6% (+1.7%)
Sources: Latest figures from IMF World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020. Original predictions from Morgan Stanley Real GDP growth forecasts.
UK Key Economic Indicators
Predicted economic growth in the UK: -10.2% (+1.4%)
Predicted increase in UK wages: +0.5%. (+2.5%)
Predicted increase in UK house prices: -7.5% (+1%)
Predicted level of UK inflation: +1.2% (2.1%)
Predicted level of UK unemployment: 8.6%. (4.1%)
Sources: See foot of article.
Adspend
Predicted increase in global adspend: -9.9% (+4.3%)
Predicted increase in total UK adspend: -13% (+4.9%)
Predicted increase in digital UK adspend: -8% (+11%)
Predicted increase in TV UK adspend: -15% (0%)
Predicted increase in Outdoor UK adspend: -35% (+5%)
Predicted increase in Cinema UK adspend: -50% (+4.5%)
Predicted increase in Radio UK adspend: -16% (+2%)
Predicted decrease in Print UK adspend: -24% (-6%)
Estimate of % UK adspend to be spent online in 2020: 66%
Source: GroupM
Sources for UK Key Economic Indicators
UK Economic Growth: Latest source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update. Original prediction from Morgan Stanley Real GDP growth forecasts.
Predicted increase in UK wages: Latest source HM Treasury. Forecast for the UK Economy. Comparison of Independent Forecasts. Original prediction from Korn Ferry Salary Forecast.
Predicted increase in UK house prices: Savills
Predicted level of UK inflation: Latest source: HM Treasury. Forecast for the UK Economy. Comparison of Independent Forecasts. Original source: Consensus Forecasts, G7 & Western Europe.
Predicted level of UK unemployment: Source: KPMG. UK Economic Outlook. June 2020. (Original source: Focus Economics Panel)
Who will win Euro 2020? The battle of the bookmakers.
While Gareth Southgate plots to end 54 years of hurt, the marketing teams of the major bookmakers will be busily drawing up their own plans for this summer’s Euro 2020. Major football tournaments are defining moments for betting firms and the performance of their marketers will have a significant impact on the year’s financial performance.
The annual reports of the big players are unusually revealing for any marketers curious enough to learn from past tournaments. In many sectors it can be difficult to access hard data relating to a specific campaign, yet in the gambling sector there are facts and figures aplenty.
The beauty of live sport is its unpredictability, but the sporting calendar itself is episodic and repetitive with World Cup followed by Euros followed by World Cup on a biennial basis. This means bookmaker annual reports provide a free, immediately accessible, treasure trove of information for anyone working towards a Euro 2020 campaign. It’s possible to look back at which bookmakers were most successful at previous tournaments - and then consider what drove that success.
As an example, I worked with Betfair to develop their 2014 World Cup campaign. A quick check back to the annual report of the time gives the results - a massive 50% increase in Betfair’s active customer base and an uplift in sportsbook revenue from £24m prior year to £36m in 2014. (Source: Betfair Annual Report 2014.) There were three reasons why the campaign was so effective, all of which could be applied to a Euro 2020 marketing plan.
First, product innovation is critical. The sector is awash with generous sign-up offers and the average online gambler has already set up accounts with four bookmakers. (Source: Gambling Commission Annual Report 2018). So Betfair had to give the portfolio punter a tangible reason to log into their Betfair account, when it was just as easy to log into any one of numerous competitor accounts. Betfair’s Cash Out and Price Rush products were therefore central to the campaign, offering two products that, at the time, were both well ahead of the market. The sector has attempted a number of innovations since, but nothing has come close to matching the impact of Cash Out. Any bookmaker with ‘the next Cash Out’ up their sleeve will have a great shot at winning Euro 2020.
An awesome, table-tennis playing Octopus helped Betfair to success in the World Cup
Second, it’s essential to own a striking piece of well branded, unique visual equity. There will be numerous Euro 2020 campaigns, not just for betting companies but for soft drinks, cars, banks and supermarkets. Within the betting sector, Euro 2020 campaigns will be multi-media and multi-message. There are 51 different matches across 31 days and there will be hundreds of different offers and prices to communicate. So a visual wrapper is essential if a ragged, fragmented campaign is to be avoided. We solved this by giving Betfair an awesome, table-tennis playing Octopus. He went everywhere, from TV to digital to a life-size 3D structure that stopped traffic at Oxford Circus. In fact, the culmination of his journey was the Betfair annual report, where he was heavily featured. The more unusual and original the visual equity, the more effective it will be, because more people will notice it*. NB: Four geezers larking about, looking at their mobile phones and punching the air with delight is not a piece of striking visual equity.
Third, it’s important to recognise that different pieces of communication have different roles to play. We need to get people to notice our campaign and take an interest in it. And we need to give people the right offers at the right time. But not everything we produce has to do both jobs. For the World Cup campaign, we launched and made an impact with the Octopus first, establishing him on TV in the opening week with a stunning TV commercial, then quickly deployed him to serve tactical messages via Betfair’s phenomenal performance marketing team. This model could be easily replicated at Euro 2020 with the right strategic planning up front.
So much for the marketing battle, but who do the bookmakers think will win Euro 2020 on the pitch? Remarkably, given their performance at previous tournaments, most have England as the current favourites!
*We repeated the use of striking visual equity a few months later, by putting horses inside rally cars for Betfair’s Tap Tap Boom Cheltenham campaign.
Twenty Useful Numbers for 2020
As we launch ourselves into another year of writing brand plans and creating marketing campaigns, here are twenty economic predictions for 2020, which provide some useful context for our individual brand and business ambitions.
Global Economic Growth
Predicted growth in the global economy: +3.2%
Predicted growth in the US: +1.8%
Predicted growth in India: +6.3%
Predicted growth in China: +6%
Predicted growth in Japan: 0%
Predicted growth in Russia: +1.7%
Source: Morgan Stanley Real GDP growth forecasts
UK Key Economic Indicators
Predicted economic growth in the UK: +1.4% (Source: Morgan Stanley Real GDP growth forecasts)
Predicted increase in UK wages: +2.5% (Source: Korn Ferry Salary Forecast)
Predicted increase in UK house prices: +1% (Source: Savills)
Predicted level of UK inflation: 2.1% (Source: Consensus Forecasts, G7 & Western Europe)
Predicted level of UK unemployment: 4.1% (Source: Focus Economics Panel)
Adspend
Predicted increase in global adspend: +4.3%
Predicted increase in total UK adspend: +4.9%
Source: Zenith Advertising Expenditure Forecasts
Predicted increase in digital UK adspend: +11%
Predicted increase in TV UK adspend: 0% (flat)
Predicted increase in Outdoor UK adspend: +5%
Predicted increase in Cinema UK adspend: +4.5%
Predicted increase in Radio UK adspend: +2%
Predicted decrease in Print UK adspend: -6%
Estimate of % UK adspend to be spent online in 2020: 66%
Source: GroupM
How to use Google Trends for Marketing Insight - Part Two
In my first post about Google Trends, I explained how useful it can be to marketers as an instant, free source of insight. In this post, let’s explore three more ways it can help with marketing strategy.
First, Trends can help us with understanding market seasonality. To bring this to life, imagine we’re a luxury Christmas pudding manufacturer, selling our products online. We want to know precisely when the great British public thinks about buying their puddings, so we can build a digital marketing campaign around this timing. Rather than conduct an expensive and time-consuming research study on the buying habits of Christmas pudding eaters, let’s first see what Google Trends can tell us:
Each year, there’s a spike of interest around the end of November. Presumably, this is when the organised folks start to make their Christmas food preparations. However, the peak point of interest falls much later, with a final-week scramble as Christmas Day approaches. The pattern repeats, almost exactly, year after year.
Google Trends can also put things in a national perspective. For example, if you work in any kind of agency or marketing team right now, you’re sure to hear a lot about Tik Tok. It was the most downloaded app on the Apple app store in the first quarter of 2019, and is valued at over $75m. Tik Tok is certainly enjoying explosive growth, but before we stick the entire annual marketing budget behind it, let’s remember that it’s not yet overtaken Poundland on UK search volumes:
As a third example, Google Trends can reveal changes in consumer behaviour. There’s been a lot of press coverage recently about vegan diets. Is this just a media fad or something people out in the real world are actively investigating and adopting? Again, Google Trends has the answer, with searches for “vegan diet” showing a steady upward trend to a peak in November 2019:
Compare this to searches for Bitcoin, which flared brightest in December 2017 before the price collapsed and interest fell back:
In my final post about Google Trends, I’ll look at how it can be an indicator of campaign impact, looking at which of the 2019 contenders is winning the Christmas advertising battle.
How to use Google Trends for marketing insight - Part One
Google Trends is an extraordinarily powerful insight-engine for marketers. It’s simple to understand and free to use, so it’s surprising that the insights it generates so rarely appear in marketing presentations.
The tool shows the volume of Google searches for any word, name or phrase you care to type into it. However, it’s when you start to pit search terms against one another that it becomes most useful.
A good starting point is to compare your brand to a close competitor, to see the nation’s relative interest and how this has changed over time. Heineken v Kronenbourg. Travelodge v Premier Inn. Lidl v Aldi. Every chart tells a story.
As an example, let’s look at two of the nation’s most famous brands: X Factor and I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here. Which is the hotter property?
The chart shows that public interest in X Factor has decreased with every new series since Ben Haenow’s triumph in 2014. In contrast, the nation has become increasingly smitten with the bugs and camp-fires of I’m a Celebrity. The trend has continued to the point where I’m a Celebrity overtook X Factor on search volumes for the first time in 2018.
The charts produced by Google Trends are indexed against the highest search volume during the period selected. The high point is given a score of 100 and all other search volumes are ranked from 0-99 in relation to this. I’m A Celebrity’s recent peak scored 79, so it still has some way to go to match the historical highs of X Factor.
In my next blog post I’ll give some examples of how brands and marketing teams can use Google Trends for specific insights. Finally, in Part Three I’ll use Google Trends to look at which brand has won the 2019 Christmas advertising battle.